The Bureau’s ENSO Outlook has been raised to LA NIÑA, indicating that the tropical Pacific has reached La Niña levels. Climate models suggest this La Niña will be weak and short-lived, persisting until early southern autumn 2018.
Signs of La Niña in the equatorial Pacific have increased during spring. The central to eastern tropical Pacific Ocean has cooled steadily since late winter, and is now at La Niña thresholds (0.8 °C below average). Atmospheric indicators, including the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), trade winds and cloud patterns, also show clear La Niña signals.
In order for 2017–18 to be classed as a La Niña year, the event needs to last for at least 3 months. Climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest that ...
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