What Paddy shot at....
For the fortnight up to the 22nd of September, 2020.
We are entering a spring of uncertainly in many aspects. Will La Nina arrive, and if so, when? Is there any sort of chance of a pick up in demand for Hay? What's the pricing going to be? Is Hay worth doing this year? Many Farmers are asking these, and many more questions about Hay going forward.
In all reality, it looks like it could be a fairly good Cereal and Vetch Hay season, as there is plenty of bulk in Crops out there. Volumes will depend on what's cut. It's a bit of a different story with Pasture paddocks North of the Great Divide, frosts and Army Worms put pay to that. South of this line the season is a cracker, and many Farmers running low on Fodder supplies would be easily able to earmark a paddock or two for Silage or Hay.
The are many scenarios playing out, as mentioned in previous Hay Reports. Most decisions are being made around the cheaper prices and low demand. Farmers are weighing up their options, some of the alternatives to Hay are looking more promising for a better return. However in the back of everyone's mind is the "f" word, frost. We are not out the of woods yet.
Demand hasn't really changed since the end of February, it's been tough going in the selling stakes. One Farmer said, "I have sold about as much as what Paddy shot at". I had to clarify as to how much Paddy shot at, "not much", he said.
Some Farmers in the Mallee areas of SA and Vic with Hay on the ground drew a sigh of relief when the 20mm forecast for last weekend failed to arrive. Although many would have taken the rain for the Crops.
Buyers in Queensland are able to source Fodder locally which is a pleasant change for them.
There is a bit of buying interest from Dairy Farmers in Gippsland, but many are on the wait and see wagon at this stage.
We are hearing that the season is coming under some pressure in parts of WA, more so the middle of the Wheat belt, with the North and the South still fairing ok.
New Export Hay plants are popping up throughout the Wimmera, Mallee, Northern Country regions of Victoria. Some are being built by the original "Exporters", who are looking to get closer to their customers. I know of a couple of new ones in the pipeline that are being started by Farmers. The Export market is growing. Currently, 40 percent of all Cereal Hay produced in Victoria goes to Export, and I think it's higher in South Australia.
What's happened to Hay prices over the last fortnight?
Old season Cereal Hay prices are in and around $150/mt, and we are yet to hear of any new season pricing.
The early indicators are that new-season Vetch Hay will sell for arounds around $200/mt ex Mallee.
We have sold a couple of good parcels of Shedded Straw to an Exporter for around $100/mt. It was pretty good stuff.
We go around the grounds to see what our Farm Tender Sales people have to say:
Paul Grayling - Mallee Vic based
Paul said - Some new season Hay is on the ground and will continue to be cut while or when the weather plays the game. New-season Vetch has already been pressed up in some areas of the Mallee. No feed tests have been received as yet. Pricing seems to be starting around the $200-220 mark, We haven't heard a lot in the way of Cereal and Oaten Hay $$$ as yet. I suspect Cereal will start somewhere around the $150-170 mark depending on quality. Feed test's will be imperative from a sales point of view this year.
Shane Ruyg - Queensland based
Shane said - A very quiet couple of weeks in sales of Hay. But getting plenty of calls around Vetch and a few listings for the new season. There's a bit of Hay on the ground in the Mallee and Southern NSW areas. Rain and thunderstorms were about on the weekend with some forecast again for this week. This has a few a bit nervous, so the job is certainly not done an dusted yet. There's a fair bit still to play out in this ever-changing season we are having.
Mike Pickard - Darling Downs based
Mike said - Some good rain through Western Queensland will slow the Hay inquiry down in those areas. Rain is needed across the Cropping regions of Southern Queensland. Demand for Hay is steady, with enough Hay being sourced locally to fill the demand. In Victoria, some Hay is being discounted to empty sheds before the new season stuff comes on board.
Jackie Elliott - South West Vic based
Jackie said - In the last fortnight I have seen a small rise in enquires from South West Victoria for Vetch Hay, especially people wanting to find out new season pricing for future purchases. I sold a decent parcel of Lucerne small squares.
Catch you in a fortnight.
For more information on selling or buying Hay contact the following:
Paul Grayling – 0447 069 082 or firstname.lastname@example.org
Shane Ruyg – 0447 922 604 or email@example.com
Mike Pickard – 0429 677 636 or firstname.lastname@example.org
Jackie Elliott - 0400 808 550 or email@example.com
Or 1300 Farming (1300 327 646)
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