Farm Tender

Mecardo Analysis - Restockers punting last week.

By Angus Brown. 

In our weekly comment last week we noted how the Eastern Young Cattle Indicator (EYCI) yardings reached a 14 month high, yet the price of the EYCI held above 500¢. We’ve had a few queries around where the demand came from, and it’s a bit of a surprise to us.

It probably comes as no shock to see that it was in saleyards north of Dubbo that young cattle yardings really jumped last week. In fact, for the first time since late January 2015, northern young cattle yardings were higher than 20,000 head. We have only seen northern yardings over the 20k mark twice previously, the other occasion was May 2014.

Southern EYCI yardings were quite subdued compared to the north, but that’s not unusual for this time of year. Southern EYCI yardings were up 600 head but still only reached 3,375 head, just a shadow of those in the north.

There were more steers yarded than heifers last week but both were much stronger. There was 10,318 (44% of total) head of heifers yarded, up 40% on the previous week, while steer yardings were 13,671 (56%) head, up 55%. Interestingly, the proportion of heifers and steers yarded didn’t really change on the previous week, so the reasonably steady prices had nothing to do with the sex of cattle yarded.

2018-07-17 Cattle Fig 1

So who bought the extra cattle? The surprise came from restockers, who had their biggest week at EYCI saleyards for over a year (Figure 2), and increased their purchases 69% week on week. Restockers purchased 10,360 head of cattle, with 64% being steers, so a larger proportion of the extra steers went to restockers. Restockers paid 487.5¢/kg cwt, which was down just 8¢ on the previous week, which suggests a lift in northern restocker demand.

2018-07-17 Cattle Fig 2

Feeders were also more active last week. Lotfeeders have had bigger weeks this year, but they still increased their EYCI numbers by 39%, with prices only easing 5.5¢ to 525¢/kg cwt (Figure 3).

2018-07-17 Cattle Fig 3

A small proportion of EYCI cattle are usually suitable for processors, last week it was 13%, but processors did have their biggest week in EYCI yards for 8 months. Processors managed to pull prices back a bit more, paying 14¢ less than the previous week at 485¢/kg cwt. This was a bit cheaper than restockers, and a lot cheaper than feeders.

Key points

    * Despite very high yardings, the EYCI managed to find support last week.

    * Restocker and feeder demand increased to absorb the extra cattle at similar prices.

    * Lotfeeders might be making small margins at current rates, but restockers are taking a punt.

What does this mean?

There has been some rain about in July, but it’s hard to see it being the reason so many cattle were bought last week at rates which are 8% above the lows seen around six weeks ago. Lotfeeders don’t often punt on markets and may have taken the opportunity to load up on cattle at rates which provide a small margin. Restockers are generally more likely to take a punt, and last week they were perhaps banking on some good rain falling over the coming month or so, bringing pastures and markets to life.

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