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By Matt Dalgleish | Source: ABS, Mecardo.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) release of the May slaughter figures shows we are still culling record numbers of female cattle as a proportion of total slaughter. Interestingly, it’s not just the drier than normal states, like NSW, that are contributing to the elevated female slaughter ratio.
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The female slaughter ratio (FSR) climbed again during May to reach a record peak of 58.2% and we have now seen three consecutive months with an FSR above 58%, bringing the annual ratio to 55.9% for 2019 (Figure 1).
Rainfall deciles across the east coast states for the last three months show that the impact of the dry season is hitting NSW the hardest. Half of the state is suffering under very much below average rainfall conditions. In contrast, most of Victoria is showing average to above average conditions. Meanwhile, Queensland is displaying predominantly average conditions with pockets of below and above average conditions scattered across the state (Figure 2).
Looking at the female slaughter ratios at a state level across the east coast paints an interesting picture. The Victorian FSR spent much of the last decade below 65% yet in recent months it has tested toward 70% twice. Similarly, the climax of the 2014/15 drought saw the Queensland FSR hit a record peak at 51.8% in April 2014 and in the last few months has surged toward 55%. In contrast, the NSW FSR has not yet been able to get above the 56.2% recorded in May 2016 (Figure 3).
Analysis of the female slaughter ratio across the three mainland east coast states shows that despite the particularly dry season experienced by NSW, it is Queensland and Victoria that has been probing into record elevated female slaughter ratio territory.
Key points
* The monthly female slaughter ratio for May 2019 has set a record high of 58.2%
* Three consecutive months of the FSR above 58% has pushed the annual average ratio from 55.3% to 55.9%
* Rainfall deciles would suggest that heavily drought impacted NSW would be driving the FSR to new heights, but it is being pushed along by elevated numbers out of Victoria and Queensland
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What does this mean?
This level of female cattle slaughter is unsustainable long term and will retract quickly when conditions allow a return to the herd rebuild. Unfortunately, the most recent BOM rainfall outlook to October signals the dry will persist. However, once decent conditions return the scramble to get hold of breeding stock won’t be limited to the drought affected regions of NSW, as Victoria and Queensland have been big drivers of the current destocking of females.
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