The certainty of uncertainty

Extracted from the Farm Tender weekly Newsletter - Sign up and get the email every Wednesday morning before 5 am. www.farmtender.com.au

By Dwain Duxson

Warning. This is probably my most complex post yet. I promise I will get back to a simpler topic next week.

I read where we are heading into a 3rd consecutive La Nina this Spring. Usually, our Agricultural community would get a bit excited about that, and many probably are. But if you're Farming in parts of NSW and Queensland where rainfall has been relentless in 2022, you are probably thinking, nooooo, not again. Especially those areas East of the divide where severe flooding occurred.

It got me thinking of how certain things get planted in our brain, and then they get sort of fixed, and we make every decision around that fixed notion.

The La Nina thing can be an example. Those that are wet or have experienced flooding would be thinking about decisions they need to make around it being wet in the Spring. You might not sow that paddock down to Lucerne because you think it might get too wet. You're making a decision around what you think might happen, a decision around one of the uncontrollable aspects, the weather. So there's a high chance it might be wet, but it might not either.

So if you do sow the Lucerne and it gets too wet (like you think it's going to), then it won't grow, and you have wasted you're time, money and effort. And if it turns out alright, then good and well.

But if you don't sow, and it would have turned out alright, then you would miss the opportunity to finish your calves or Lambs on a quality pasture and make a good margin.

These are the sort of things that roll through Farmer's heads each day.

We all know that Agriculture has a bright future. It could possibly be the most lucrative game to be in. But there is also uncertainty in Agriculture. War, how you perceive climate change, input costs, Land prices, commodity prices, getting people to help you with the work, succession, etc. All these things are present in our everyday decision-making.

We can factor these things into our thinking, but we can't let them override the decision around the opportunity that presents.

So what I am trying to say is the opportunity for a successful outcome (a good Crop or some ripping Lambs) might be lost if we put emphasis on external factors that might never be a factor at all.

Filter the external noise and focus on the outcome. Make bold and decisive decisions, but don't beat yourself up when things go wrong.

Because if you let all the uncertain things override your decisions, you won't get anywhere.

I wrote in the "daily" this week about the people that don't trust anyone. They don't get anywhere.

I hope this makes sense.

End of message.