Rebound in EU Grain production confirmed…

By Peter McMeekin

Expectations of vastly improved grain output across European Union member states this year are coming to fruition, with harvests proceeding at a rapid pace across much of the continent, although rain delays have played havoc in some regions.

Winter crops have reportedly performed well in the Baltic states, Nordic countries, the Black Sea states of Romania and Bulgaria, as well as in France, Spain and Ireland, primarily due to excellent soil moisture availability throughout much of the growing season. However, Germany, Poland and Hungary expect average yields, with water deficits causing production issues, compounded in Germany by disease pressure. Heat and water-stressed crops are likely to manifest in below average yields through much of Italy.

Harvest of the soft wheat crop in France, the European Union’s biggest producer, remained well ahead of average by the close of last week. FranceAgriMer reported that farmers had harvested 86 per cent of the crop, compared with 71 per cent a week earlier, 37 per cent at the same point last year, and the five-year average of 59 per cent.

Crop ratings were unchanged from a week earlier, with 69 per cent of the soft wheat crop rated in good or excellent condition, well ahead of the 50 per cent rating at the same stage in 2024. According to the French farm ministry France’s wheat crop had faced excessive winter rains and mixed spring weather. Despite improved rainfall in May and favourable sunlight during flowering, grain filling was constrained in some regions by hot weather in June.

France AgriMer reported that the spring barley harvest across France was 89 per cent complete by the end of last week, compared with 64 per cent a week earlier, 28 per cent on the same date last year, and 51 per cent on the five-year average. Farmers completed their winter barley harvest earlier in July.

Meanwhile, the German harvest has again ground to a halt on the back of persistent rainfall over the weekend. The unwelcomed weather, especially after such a dry growing season, is forecast to continue into this week, further hampering efforts to catch up, and raising concerns that quality issues may surface as the campaign progresses.

According to the latest European Commission’s production data, the EU-27 will produce 278.4 million metric tonne of winter, spring and summer cereal grains in 2025, 9.1 per cent more than the 2024 harvest of 255.2MMT, and 2.1 per cent higher than the five-year average of 272.6MMT.

Soft wheat production is expected to be 127.3MMT, an increase of 14 per cent on the 2024 crop of 111.7MMT and 4.3 per cent more than the 122.0MMT average over the past five years. This is off a harvested area that is estimated to be just 0.5 per cent higher at 21.0Mha, meaning yield did most of the work, improving by 9.6 per cent from 5.53 metric tonne per hectare to 6.06MT/ha.

The soft wheat harvest in France is expected to be 32.3MMT, 27 per cent higher than the 2024 crop of 25.4MMT, and 2.4 per cent above the five-year average of 31.6MMT. This is fractionally lower than the French farm ministry’s forecast of 32.6MMT. The production rebound in Germany is forecast to be almost as impressive, jumping 16.8 per cent from 18.1MMT to 21.1MMT. But this is still below the five year average of 22.0MMT and the National Association of Agricultural Co-Operatives forecast which was adjusted slightly higher last week to 21.6MMT. Poland is the third-largest soft wheat producer in the EU-27, with output expected to be 3.5 per cent higher than in 2024 at 12.7MMT.

Elsewhere in the EU, Bulgaria is on track for its largest soft wheat crop on record, with a forecast of 7.1MMT surpassing the 2021/22 benchmark of 7.0MMT. In Spain, the wheat harvest is already winding down, but the 7.1MMT estimate will make it the second-biggest on record behind the bumper 2021/22 crop. Big wheat crops in the Baltic neighbours of Latvia and Lithuania, 2.7MMT and 4.3MMT, respectively, are at or near record levels, and the 3.4MMT wheat harvest estimate for Sweden is second only to 2019/20 when 3.5MMT was reaped.

Maize is the second-largest cereal crop in the EU each season, with the 2025 harvest currently projected to generate 60.1MMT, an increase of 0.9 per cent over 2024, but 4.4 per cent below the five-year average of 62.9MMT. The harvested area is anticipated to be 8.4Mha, down from 8.8Mha in 2024, while the average yield is forecast to increase season-on-season from 6.76MT/ha to 7.18MT/ha.

France leads the way with projected output of 14.0MMT, down from 14.8MMT on the back of a slightly smaller area and a 4.3 per cent decrease in yield. Poland is the second-biggest producer this year on 8.7MMT, down from 9.4MMT in 2024, followed by the Black Sea state of Romania, where the harvest forecast of 8.1MMT is 26.1 per cent higher than last year's 6.4MMT crop. Interestingly, in the five years to 2021/22, Romanian maize production averaged 15.0MMT, with a high of 18.6MMT in the 2018/19 season when it relegated France to the second step on the podium.

Barley is the last of the three major cereal crops, which collectively make up 86.5 per cent of total cereal production. Output this year is forecast to finish up at 53.6MMT, 9.1 per cent higher than the 2024 crop of 49.1MMT and 5.9 per cent more than the 50.6MMT average for the past five campaigns. The EC’s harvested area of 10.2Mha is down a tad from 10.3Mha in 2024, but the average yield is expected to be 10.2 per cent higher at 5.26MT/ha.

France is expected to regain its position atop the production table in 2025, after Germany assumed the mantle last year. The French crop, winter and spring varieties combined, is forecast to be 19.4 per cent higher than in 2024 on 11.7MMT, despite a slight reduction in the harvested area. Yield is the saviour, increasing 20.7 per cent compared to last harvest to 6.52MT/ha. Germany comfortably holds second position on 10.3MMT, but 2 per cent lower than 2024, followed by Spain where production has increased by 22.6 per cent this year to 9.0MMT.

Rapeseed is main oilseed crop in the EU each season, making up an average of almost 60 per cent of the bloc’s total oilseed output over the past five seasons. Production in 2025 is expected to increase by 1.1 per cent, or 1.9MMT year-on-year to 18.5MMT, 3.3 per cent above the five-year average of 17.9MMT. The harvested area of 5.8Mha is 2.2 per cent higher than in 2024 and the average yield has jumped by 8.7 per cent to 3.19MT/ha.

Like soft wheat, the big three rapeseed growers are France, Germany and Poland, with this season’s production expected to be 4.2MMT, 3.9MMT and 3.2MMT, respectively. Together they have accounted for an average of 61.7 per cent of total EU-27 rapeseed output since 2020/21, with the crop size slowly decreasing in both France and Germany but trending higher in Poland.

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