Morocco’s heavy reliance on Wheat imports to continue 2025/26…

By Peter McMeekin

Morocco’s cereal crops may have received a late-season boost from abundant rainfall in March and April, but early-season drought conditions minimised the production upside, leaving output below the ten-year average and the country heavily reliant on imports in the 2025/26 marketing year.

Cumulative rainfall registrations during the winter months of December, January and February were more than 60 per cent below the long-term average in key producing regions in the northwest of the country, marking the second consecutive year of drought conditions and poor winter crop production across much of the country.

The arid conditions at the beginning of the season led to substantial planting delays, particularly in the southernmost cereal-growing regions, where seeding was not completed until the first week of January. At the beginning of the season, the Ministry of Agriculture reportedly projected a winter cereal area of 5 million hectares

However, the prolonged dry conditions and inadequate rainfall caused apprehension among farmers, preventing many from proceeding with their entire program. Consequently, around 40 per cent of the government’s forecast area remained unseeded with final plantings of 3 million hectares sitting around 30 per cent below the ten-year average.

The variance in planting timelines across the winter cropping area resulted in noticeable differences in crop development, with the early seeded fields suffering the most. While the spring rains did boost soil moisture reserves and help the later-planted crops, they came too late in most regions to recover all of the yield potential lost over the parched winter months.

According to recently released government data, Morocco’s farmers ended up reaping 3.5 million metric tonne of wheat in the 2025 harvest, which commenced in May and concluded in late July. This output was generated from 2.2 million hectares, yielding an average of 1.59 metric tonne per hectare.

The wheat result was 42.3 per cent higher than the previous season’s harvest disaster of 2.46MMT, which came from the same harvested area at an average yield of just 1.2MT/ha. However, this year’s harvest was 15.8 per cent below the 2023 harvest of 4.16MMT, which was reaped off 2.43 million hectares at an average yield of 1.71MT/ha.

Wheat production consisted of 2.5MMT of soft wheat, which is commonly milled and used for bread, an important dietary staple served with most meals, and 1MMT of durum wheat, which goes into traditional foods such as couscous and pasta. Total domestic demand for wheat is forecast at 9.6MMT, 98 per cent of which is used for food, seed and industrial purposes. Around 200,000 metric tonne of wheat goes into the stockfeed sector annually.

In the United States Department of Agriculture’s September global supply and demand update, Morocco’s wheat import forecast for the 2025/26 marketing year was decreased from 6.7MMT to 6.5MMT due to the late boost in domestic production. This is down fractionally from 6.6MMT in 2024/25, but 500,000 metric tonne, or 8.3 per cent higher than imports in 2023/24.

According to a recent forecast from the industrial group France Intercereales, Morocco is likely to import more than 3MMT of French milling wheat this season, accounting for around 20 per cent of France’s total wheat export program for 2025/26, and around 37.5 per cent of the country’s wheat shipments to destinations outside the European Union. Morocco has reportedly purchased around 1MMT of French milling wheat so far this season.

France Intercereales expects Morocco to import at least 5MMT of milling wheat and 1MMT of durum wheat, for a total of 6MMT, slightly less than the USDA forecast, with 60 per cent of that milling wheat program to be supplied by France. The ongoing trade dispute between France and Morocco’s Maghreb neighbour, Algeria, is assisting the cause as French wheat exporters seek alternative homes for the traditional Algerian flow.

While the current global wheat trade environment is slated to result in a reversion to more traditional trade flows out of France in 2025/26, Morocco has expanded its supplier base in recent years to include Germany, Canada and Poland, as well as the key Black Sea exporters of Russia, Romania, and Ukraine.

In the 2022/23 marketing year, France accounted for 50.9 per cent of Morocco’s 6.24MMT import program, with Germany and Canada accounting for 15.7 per cent and 17.1 per cent, respectively. The Black Sea region accounted for just 3.2 per cent, with Russia on zero. In the twelve months to the end of May 2025, imports from non-European Union Black Sea exporters increased to 1.43MMT, or 22.7 per cent of total wheat imports, with Russia accounting for 1.19MMT. Imports from EU member states were 3.63MMT, with the Black Sea state of Romania a large supplier.

This season’s barley production ended up at 950,000 metric tonne off a harvested area of 800,000 hectares, putting the average yield at 1.19MT/ha according to government figures. This compares to the harvest output of 660,000 metric tonne in 2024 from the same harvested area, for a disastrous yield average of 0.83MT/ha. While the average yield from the 2023 harvest was similar to this year at 1.15MT/ha, the harvested area and production were much higher at 1.17 million hectares and 1.35MMT, respectively.

Barley is primarily consumed as animal feed, with consumption rates varying depending on local availability and pasture conditions. The industry anticipates a substantial decline in stockfeed consumption in the 2025/26 marketing year due to a significant decrease in livestock numbers in Morocco following consecutive years of drought.
Demand for barley in 2025/26 is expected to fall accordingly, with current projections for the stockfeed sector of 1MMT more than 35 per cent lower season-on-season.

Food, seed and industrial use is expected to remain static at 800,000 metric tonne, putting the nation’s total consumption at 1.8MMT, down from 2.0MMT in 2024/25 and 2.4MMT in 2023/24. The fall in domestic demand will be reflected in import requirements, with the 2025/26 forecast of 900,000 metric tonne, 18.2 per cent lower than the 2024/25 program and 41.3 per cent lower than purchases in 2023/24.

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