Mixed Grain Harvest results for Bulgaria this season…

By Peter McMeekin

Quite favourable weather across much of Bulgaria in the latter stages of this season’s winter crop development, followed by hot and dry harvest conditions, has resulted in higher wheat and barley production than initially expected, but the quality of the grain is not quite as good as last year’s excellent crop.

Bulgaria’s Ministry of Agriculture recently reported that the 2025/26 winter crop harvest had been completed, with wheat production coming in at 7.3 million metric tonne. This represents an 8.5 per cent increase in output compared to 2024, on the back of a 6.2 per cent increase in the harvested area to 1.26 million hectares, which was compounded by a 2.3 per cent increase in the average yield to 5.8 metric tonne per hectare.

That matches the European Commission’s output forecast, with its yield of 5.77MT/ha almost 11 per cent above the five-year average of 5.2MT/ha and 14.9 per cent above the ten-year average of 5.04MT/ha. However, some private forecasters reportedly have the crop as high as 7.5MMT, while average yield estimates are as high as 6.4MT/ha.

While no official quality data has been released as yet, private analysts are expecting the milling wheat share to be in the 55 to 60 per cent range, down from the previous harvest when 73.04 per cent of the crop met milling industry standards, but still significantly higher than the 2003 harvest when only 48.7 per cent made the grade.

Bulgaria’s wheat exports in the 2024/25 marketing year (July to June) set a new record of just over 6MMT, of which 4.6MMT, or 76.6 per cent, was shipped to destinations outside the European Union via its Black Sea ports of Varna and Burgas. Trade data for the nine months to the end of March put wheat exports at 5.1MMT. The biggest destination was Algeria with 2.11MMT, or 41.4 per cent of the program, followed by Egypt with 0.5MMT. Adding 0.36MMT to Morocco and 0.13MMT to Tunisia means North African importers accounted for 3.1MMT, or 58.8 per cent of the export task completed by March 30.

Third on the list was Romania with 0.48MMT, a portion of which would most likely have then been re-exported out of its own Black Sea port of Constanta. Greece and Spain were the other EU destinations of note. Asian importers were not big buyers from Bulgaria, with Indonesia and Thailand on 0.15MMT and 0.14MMT, respectively, the only two in the top ten. Bulgaria’s wheat carryout declined to just 100,000MT in 2024/25 on the back of the record export season.

Final 2025/26 barley production came in at 1.1MMT according to the country’s Ministry of Agriculture. That equates to a harvest-on-harvest increase of 7.7 per cent, with the harvested area 2.7 per cent higher at just under 200,000 hectares and the average yield increasing by 4.8 per cent to 5.68MT/ha. Again, the European Commission is on the same page with regards to total production, but they are using a slightly higher yield of 5.71MT/ha, which is 15.1 per cent above the five-year average and 21.5 per cent above the ten-year average.

Barely exports in the 2024/25 marketing year totalled 750,000MT, with 360,000MT, or 48 per cent, going to non-EU countries. The top three destinations in the first nine months of 2024/25 were Spain, Romania and Saudi Arabia, with 123,000MT, 110,000MT and 103,000MT, respectively. Algeria, Greece, Portugal, Morocco and Tunisia were the next five, all importing less than 100,000MT. North African demand totalled 210,000MT, or 31 per cent of 680,000MT of shipments in the first three quarters of the marketing season.

While the hot and dry weather through June, July and August was great for the winter crop harvest, it baked the corn crop. In late July and early August, Bulgaria endured a 25-day period where the maximum daily temperature didn’t fall below 35 degrees Celsius. The national meteorological bureau reported that Bulgaria’s summer was one of the hottest and driest since 1950, with many regions experiencing acute soil and atmospheric drought.

A lack of rainfall, especially in July and August, accompanied the heatwave conditions, rapidly sapping soil moisture reserves. The severe water deficit combined with heat stress during flowering and early grain fill stages substantially reduced the accumulation of corn biomass, accelerated crop development and reduced pollination efficiency.

This is the fourth consecutive season of extreme summer weather conditions. While early-season expectations were optimistic, Bulgarian farmers did reduce their exposure to corn in the current crop cycle by decreasing the planted area from 510,000 hectares to 420,000 hectares, following the run of arid summers and poor crops.

The Ministry of Agriculture is holding onto quite a hopeful corn production estimate of 2MMT, but private industry estimates vary from 0.85MMT to 1.7MMT based on yield estimates that range from just over 2.0MT/ha up to 4.0MT/ha. The European Commission’s current yield projection is 3.24MT/ha, 30.6 per cent below the five-year average, but 2.5 per cent higher than the 2024 harvest.

Corn exports in the 2024/25 marketing year (September to August) were extremely slow due to low production and a poor quality harvest last year. As of mid-August, the Ministry of Agriculture reported corn exports at just under 250,000MT compared to almost 700,000MT for the same period last season. The primary destination is Greece, followed by Türkiye and Romania. Conversely, imports of corn for the same period have increased from 26,000MT in 2023/24 to 462,000MT this season.

Sunflower seed is the main oilseed crop in Bulgaria each season, with the planted area for 2025/26 reported to be a tad less than 1 million hectares, an increase of 7.5 per cent compared to 2024/25, and 8.3 per cent above the five-year average. The sunflower plant’s resilience to extreme summer heat led to early-season harvest expectations as high as 2.0MMT compared to the 1.5MMT reaped from the 2024 harvest. However, the dire soil moisture deficits took the gloss off the crop with the European Commission winding its production forecast back to 1.65MMT, 10.3 per cent below the five-year average, with the yield of 1.75MT/ha coming in 17.1 per cent below the five-year average.

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