Market forces that will drastically reduce or even eliminate the use of Pesticides.

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By Dr Claude Rene Flueckiger

Pesticides, also referred to as Chemical crop-protection products (CCPPs), are currently critical to sustaining the world’s agricultural outputs. This article addresses the current importance of CCPPs while exploring the trends and market forces that will drastically reduce or even eliminate the use of CCPPs in the long term.

Importance of CCPPs in the short term                

Without CCPPs, crop losses would reduce current yields by 20-40% [1]. Offsetting crop losses through the expansion of farmlands would be ecologically devastating. In order to preserve wilderness areas and maintain biodiversity, we must avoid increasing the portion of the Earth’s surface area used as agricultural lands. The United Nations Sustainable Development Goals call for “sustainable agricultural intensification” [2]. Farmers can only meet those goals if they have tools that increase the efficiency of their existing operations and enable them to increase yields without increasing farmland. Therefore, CCPPs will remain critically important and common in the short and medium term. Taking CCPPs off the market before viable alternatives exist would have negative consequences for farmers, the global food supply, and for worldwide agricultural sustainability.

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Not only are CCPPs important for improved yields and sustainable agricultural intensification, but according to regulatory authorities in Europe and in the United States, CCPPs are also safe [1,3,4]. Before approving any CCPP, regulators determine a maximum safe level for human exposure based on stringent toxicological evaluations. This safe level is then reduced by a factor of 100 to arrive at the maximum level tolerated for a given CCPP on a crop (the “tolerance level”). Because of continuous advances in analytical techniques, extremely low residue levels can now be detected on crops. However, as long as these residue levels are below the tolerance level, which is1/100 of the maximum level that would still be considered safe, then there is no impact on human health. Discussions regarding chemical residues should consider the actual residue levels relative to the tolerance levels [5]. Otherwise, the public may be left with the mistaken impression that any residues are harmful, when in fact low residue levels are safe. Violations of CCPP residue levels have become increasingly rare, especially in developed countries.

Because of the high efficacy of CCPPs at low application rates and their selectivity in sparing beneficial organisms, modern CCPPs have become more suited for use in integrated pest management (IPM) [6] programs, which are the foundation of sustainable agricultural intensification. CCPPs are also well suited to support the introduction of new technologies such as biological crop protection products and more resistant crop varieties. Many of these new innovative technologies initially cannot outperform CCPPs and therefore need to be applied in an integrated system with CCPPs until the new technologies are refined to reach their full potential.

The global CCPP market, valued at more than $50 billion, is still projected to grow globally over the next 5 years, and new CCPPs will continue to be brought to market. The need for an increase in global food production drives the intensification of agricultural production, which in turn leads to an increased demand for CCPPs. As a result, certain markets that still need to increase yields, particularly in developing countries, will continue to use more CCPPs. The introduction of herbicide tolerant crops, no till, and biofuels will create additional demand for CCPPs.

However, many countries are implementing policies to reduce CCPP usage. As alternative biological technologies become increasingly available, CCPPs will face even further restrictions and bans. This trend is already apparent: the introduction of GMO BT-corn in the United States made the use of chemical insecticides unnecessary on that crop [7]. In addition, organic production does not allow CCPPs, and a large percentage of vegetable IPM production in greenhouses uses biocontrol with little or no CCPPs. Since many pests, diseases and weeds become resistant to a given CCPP, and the limited number of new active ingredients is insufficient to replace them, biopesticides will become attractive alternatives. The markets have recognized these trends and venture capital funding is shifting towards development of alternatives to CCPPs [8].

Each year, the registration of new active ingredients becomes more difficult and more costly. This difficulty is reflected in the drastic decline in the number of recent registrations [9]. The average R&D costs necessary to bring a new active ingredient to market have doubled to $286 million, and the time for development has increased from 8 to 11 years during the last 20 years [9]. Additionally, the huge fixed and operating costs of crop protection R&D, and declines in new registrations, are increasing the costs per new active ingredient. This makes it necessary for agriculture companies to develop broad-spectrum blockbuster products with large markets in order to recover development costs and maintain profitability. However, the economic incentive to develop broad-spectrum products conflicts with the needs of the market for following IPM principles and using specific, targeted products. Those targeted products have a smaller market and are thus less profitable for the agriculture companies to develop.

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The conflict between agriculture companies’ incentives to develop broad-spectrum products and market demand for targeted solutions creates an opportunity for other technologies such as biological crop-protection products, also referred to as biopesticides. Biopesticides are more specific in activity, harmless to beneficials, faster to bring to market, and more than 10 times less expensive to develop [10]. The trend towards development of biological products is already apparent: in 2017, there were more patents for biopesticides than for CCPPs [9].

In addition to improved biopesticides, other innovations such as pest resistant crops, more biotechnology advances, leveraging of the microbiome, and use of beneficial organisms will enhance crop resilience. The effect of these modern biological advances will be compounded by advances in precision agriculture, digital farming, integrated system approaches, and other technologies such as targeted application methods, biostimulants, and nanotechnology. All of these developments will significantly reduce the need for CCPPs. The trend of reduced CCPP usage will initially be slower in developing countries. However, once biopesticides and other biological innovations become highly efficacious, they will contribute toward a decline in CCPP usage worldwide.

An increasing portion of the general public wants the use of CCPPs to be further restricted or forbidden. Public opinion has been influenced by a variety of issues such as the suspected carcinogenetic nature of glyphosate, concern about neonicotinoid insecticides contributing to bee decline, and occasional reports of increased pesticide residues. Nongovernmental organizations such as the Pesticide Action Network are fueling these concerns and invest in campaigns against CCPPs. So far, the industry has been unsuccessful in both adequately addressing the public’s concerns regarding these issues and in communicating the net benefits of CCPPs, such as agricultural efficiency and sustainability. As a result, the public does not believe that existing regulatory schemes are adequate.

Even the best safety and regulatory framework is subject to errors and violations, and the use of CCPPs will never be risk free. Although the present regulatory schemes suggest that CCPPs are safe, issues including worker safety and environmental effects, such as the impact on biodiversity and the microbiome, all require additional attention. Furthermore, the scientific community is continually reviewing safety standards for CCPPs, such as possible effects at low concentrations (e.g., endocrine disruption and the effects of CCPP mixtures). A CCPP that is currently considered safe may be deemed unsafe in the future because of new findings and increased regulatory standards. As a result of regulatory developments, many older pesticides have been taken off the market, and many more will be withdrawn. There is debate regarding the degree of the risks posed by CCPPs. Perceived risks will continue to capture the attention of the public. This will lead supermarket chains to use their purchasing power over farmers to maintain pressure on the agriculture industry to move away from CCPPs.

CCPPs will continue to play an important short-term role because of their significance in agricultural efficiency and in increasing yields. The fact that modern CCPPs are IPM compatible and safe makes them important tools for sustainable agricultural intensification. The global use of CCPPs is still forecasted to increase over the next 5 years due to intensification of agriculture, especially in developing countries. Despite the current importance of CCPPs, various trends are contributing to their decline and agriculture companies are facing difficulties in developing new CCPPs. The economic incentive for the industry to develop broad-spectrum CCPPs conflicts with the needs of the market for specific targeted products in IPM. Additionally, the public wants the use of CCPPs to be reduced due to perceived risks. A revolution in the adoption of new technologies will reduce the need for CCPPs and move the industry towards increased sustainable agricultural intensification. These trends have already resulted in a drastic decrease in new active ingredient registrations for CCPPs and an increase in registrations for biopesticides. In my opinion, all of these factors together will lead to a drastic long-term reduction in use or the elimination of CCPPs in many markets.

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Claude has more than 30 years of experience in the crop protection industry as both a commercial and technical executive. Claude led the global development and commercialization of major chemical and biological innovations at Syngenta. Currently, he is an agroindustry consultant specializing in strategies that leverage new technologies in order to move agriculture in a more sustainable direction.