By Andrew Whitelaw
Check out the original article here.
The tables below display the spot APW price for ports around Australia. Included are two timeframes of deciles, long term from 2010 & 2016 to present.
The tables display nominal prices relevant to each decile range, which can be used to get an understanding of how high (or low) the current price is in relation to historical pricing. A decile table measures how often, historically, prices have fallen above (or below) a particular pricing point.
It gives a brief snapshot of whether a market has more upside or downside and how large this may be.
For example, if a price is at its 40% decile, this means that 40% of the time, prices have been below that value and 60% of prices higher.
Similarly, a 90% decile means that 90% of the time, prices have been lower and higher just 10% of the time. Please note that a price can’t reside outside of the 100 percentile.
At the bottom of each table is the current price and the percentage decile ranking for that price.
There is a wide range in deciles for current prices across the country. New South Wales and Queensland are technically the worst pricing levels, due in part to the comparatively higher pricing in recent years due to drought.
Western Australia, Victoria and South Australia continue to maintain pricing levels above the 50th percentile for both the medium and long term timeframe.