Crystal balling it a bit

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Extracted from the Farm Tender weekly Newsletter - Sign up and get the email every Wednesday morning before 5 am. www.farmtender.com.au

By Dwain Duxson

We just want to get in an early plug for our "FarmTender2023 - The Business of Farming" event on the 3rd of March in Bendigo. Keep the date free. We have a day chock full of take aways. If you're a Farmer, don't miss this one. Check it out here and get your tickets early.

The headline says that we are going to take a bit of a look at 2023 for Agriculture and some of the things that might play out. But as we all know, plenty of people are going through floods which are messing up Crops, Pastures, Infrastructure, Homes and businesses. For those involved, your thoughts are in the moment, and what might or has happened, your thoughts aren't too far ahead, and for those of us lucky enough not to be directly affected, our thoughts are with you through this tough time. Stay safe, and we hope some positive things are just around the corner.

For Agriculture, there are negatives on the horizon, but today we want to look at some of the positives ahead for 2023.

Did you know that of all the main Cattle Herds in the world, ours is the only one growing? So there are short to medium-term price opportunities in beef with dwindling numbers in all of the main Cattle producing countries. If the Bull sales are any barometer, that confidence in the Beef industry is right across the board. 2023 will start out with plenty to feed around.

I have been talking to a few Irrigation Farmers of late, some are going through some short-term pain. But being Irrigation Farmers, these guys are always looking at how much water is ahead of them and how many years of production they have in advance. One guy told me he has 5 years of production all but set. We all know it's not that easy, but they have their most important base covered.

Cotton Farmers are enjoying all the planets lining up at once. Water is plentiful, and like the Cattle guys, the lack of supply in other countries is keeping prices and demand for our Cotton here at near-record levels. All of this year's Cotton has been sold, and a third of next year's Crop has already been forward sold. The quality of Aussie Cotton is getting a reputation on the world stage, and demand is growing.

We are nearly in November, and many of the moisture profiles are full to overflowing. The ability to manage moisture is one of the best-learnt skills a Cropping Farmer has been able to obtain. Most have got it down to a fine art now, and having a full profile at this time of year means we should be able to plant the 2023 Crop with some sort of confidence.

The supply chains for things like new Tractors are showing signs that it could get back to some form of normality. Some Manufacturers are reporting rising stock levels, and Dealers are getting access to more units to sell. This should filter down to other Machinery and Equipment we import, and hopefully, it will happen for all the Ag Equipment we manufacture here as well.

Sheep have been in the doldrums for 6 months or so now, and when I say doldrums, the prices we are receiving today are historically still good, it's just that the market has been a bit off from the top for a while. But with plenty of Grass and a fast-growing appetite for Lamb in the US, things are looking positive.

And we need a good feed year for Livestock in 2023. Why? Because there is next to no Hay around, and the domestic Hay market is the rescue package for our Livestock Industry if things get dry. Can we please order a good year? We don't need 2023 to finish off dry.

You would have to think Grain prices would stay up in 2023, with a dry period in parts of Europe, the US and South America and what is happening in Ukraine and Russia. Surely world stocks of Grain would have to be tightening. There is a good article about the drying Mississippi River and how it's affecting US exports of Grain. Read it here.

There have been signs that Land prices might come off a bit, with some isolated sales not meeting expectations. But, there is still plenty of strength and appetite in the market, with some really strong results recently. 2023 "might" see a levelling out of Land prices, and if that's the case, many would see that as a positive.

As I said, there are plenty of headwinds ahead for 2023, but the positives are there, as outlined above.

Good luck.

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