AWB - Cash market slips and grain growers pull back from selling

By James Massina - AWB

The Bureau of Meteorology recently released its three-month outlook for August to October and the current weather patterns look set to continue. The BoM is stating that there is a greater than 80% chance of above median rainfall for the August to October period for the whole of the Australian cropping region except for Western Australia. It goes one step further than that, saying that most of the eastern two thirds of the mainland has double the normal chance of unusually high rainfall for the same period. This will no doubt be welcomed by some, though there will be others out there who would much prefer some warm and sunny days to help those crops that were planted late, and already very wet. The BoM is also saying that generally, minimum and maximum temperatures will be above the medians for much of the cropping belt.

Cash markets have been relatively quiet over recent weeks as a pull back in values generally has the grower and domestic consumer sitting on the sidelines. In the old crop space, most of the engagement has been in the nearby with execution driving a large part of the interest. Delivered wheat values into northern and southern homes for SFW have been trading a $10-20 range for a period and values somewhat dependent on the timeframe and the destination. It has been a similar story in barley with trade shorts and demand into export slots providing the most liquidity. Some uncertainty in the feedlot sector as FMD continues to make the news has a cautionary approach coming from there. Canola markets have been volatile and jumping around on overseas news. Currently, there seems to be a reluctance to engage from the grower as values are well back from the highs, we saw only a matter of weeks ago.

Overseas markets have been under pressure as some normality returned to futures markets. With an export pathway seemingly established through the Black Sea region, focus turned to fundamentals which generally saw markets move lower as the realisation that there is ample wheat and canola in the exporting countries to supply demand. Plenty to still play out in the Black Sea and questions remain whether 50 million tonnes of wheat can be exported from that region however today, that is what the market is working on. US and European wheat all trended lower over recent weeks with canola in Canada and Europe following a similar pathway. The same cannot be said for row crops in the US which have been firm on the basis that the weather forecast for that region is looking dry and hot. Needless to say, newswires will continue to influence markets however it has been refreshing to see market commentary focused on fundamentals of late.

https://www.awb.com.au/home