Mecardo Analysis - Fibre diameter by region
- By: "Farm Tender" News
- Ag Tech News
- Oct 18, 2018
- 360 views
- Share
By Andrew Woods | Source: AWEX, AWTA, BOM, ICS.
Following on from the article earlier this week, which showed markedly different wool micron categories coming from different regions around Australia, this article looks at rainfall in these regions as a tool to both explain changes in the average fibre diameter and provide a guide to likely changes in the coming year.
Western Australia accounts for around 20% of the production of medium and broad Merino wool. This proportion will vary between months and between seasons, especially when seasonal conditions between eastern and Western Australia are markedly different.
Figure 1 compares the year on year change in a rolling 12-month rainfall rank and the AWTA average measured fibre diameter. AWTA data is used in preference to auction data as it better reflects production without the distortion introduced by wool being held and sold at different lengths of time after testing. Finally, median rainfall data is used to help project the rolling 12-month rainfall rank and through this, year on year change in the projected rainfall rank.
While the correlation is far from perfect between the changes in micron and rainfall for Western Australia, it helps explain a lot of the year to year variation and helps point to how the fibre diameter is likely to change in the coming year. According to this correlation and the rainfall projection, the year on year fall in the fibre diameter should diminish through to early 2019. This means the year on year fall in medium and broader Merino wool arising from Western Australia will moderate to zero by early 2019.
The next region to look at is the eastern pastoral regions, in Figure 2. The correlation is again far from perfect but has had a good record during the past decade. Swings in the rainfall rank tend to be longer than in the Mediterranean Western Australian environment. The dry 2017-2018 stands out in Figure 2, with the Merino fibre diameter (from auction sales data) dragged a massive 0.6 micron lower than year-earlier levels. The combination of markedly finer wool in both Western Australia and the eastern pastoral regions has been responsible for the big 2018 fall in broad Merino supply in Australia.
Finally, in Figure 3, the eastern non-pastoral regions are studied. These regions encompass areas with markedly different rainfall and pasture patterns as it runs from the Traprock region in south east Queensland down to Tasmania. However, the big swings in rainfall line up reasonably well with the big swings in the Merino fibre diameter. The micron only started to fall below year-earlier levels in June, which is why the sub-18 micron volumes in the Australian clip have only started to rise this season. The rainfall series indicates that the pressure for finer wool will persist until around November, before starting to moderate. However, the rainfall series points to fibre diameter beginning below year-earlier levels well into 2019, so the production of fine wool will rise for the balance of the current season.
Key points
* Rainfall data is a cheap and up-to-date resource for helping understand changes in the Australian wool clip.
* Changes in rainfall do a good job of explaining the large swings in fibre diameter seen in the Australian clip.
* The relationship between rainfall and fibre diameter provides some ability to forecast fibre diameter and through that micron volumes.
Share Ag News Via